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April 21, 2025

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Trading is all about the odds. Trade when the odds are in your favor. Exercise patience and stand aside when the odds are NOT in your favor. Stocks are in a bear market with the vast majority of names (76%) trading below their 200-day SMAs. Clearly, the odds are NOT in our favor for equities and equity ETFs. Traders need to look elsewhere. Today’s report will highlight some non-equity leaders and analyze Bitcoin as it sets up.

TrendInvestorPro works with a ChartList that has 72 ETFs covering all sectors, the key industry groups, commodities, bonds and crypto. Note that this curated ChartList is available to TrendInvestorPro subscribers. The image below is sorted by the percentage above the 200-day SMA (blue shading) to show the top 20 performers. This simple performance overview reveals a lot. We are NOT in a bull market and alternative assets are attracting attention (gold, Bitcoin).

First, we see leadership from gold, silver, Bitcoin, and commodity-related ETFs. Second, only a handful of equity ETFs are trading above their 200-day SMAs. Third, these ETFs represent defensive groups (Consumer Staples Utilities, MLPs, Aerospace & Defense, Insurance). This is NOT the performance profile for a bull market. We are in a bear market and equities are not the place to be right now.

Improve your odds and stay on the right side of the market with the models and analysis at TrendInvestorPro. Our stock market model turned bearish in mid March, and remains bearish. Even with the big surge on April 9th, our thrust indicators fell well short of a signal because of weak follow through. We will continue to watch these models and focus on equity alternatives. Click here to get a bonus and learn more!  

The Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is in the leadership group and Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is bouncing off its 270 day SMA. Where did 270 come from? A typical 200-day SMA covers a little less than 9 months of trading days, which exclude weekends and holidays. Bitcoin trades 24/7, weekends and holidays. Chartists, therefore, need an adjustment to get the ~9-month equivalent for Bitcoin. I chose 270.

The chart below shows Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) with a classic correction and setup in the making. Bitcoin gained over 100% from September to January and was entitled to a correction. Dow Theory teaches us that normal corrections retrace 33 to 67 percent of the prior advance. 50 percent is the base case. The chart shows the Fibonacci retracements with Bitcoin retracing 61.8% as it fell to 75000. Bitcoin also tested the rising 270-day SMA in March and April. A 61.8% retracement and return to the ~9-month SMA are normal for corrections (blue shading).

A falling wedge formed with Bitcoin establishing resistance at 88000 (pink line). Falling wedge patterns are also typical for corrections. More importantly, these patterns provide levels to watch for a trend reversal. Bitcoin is making its first breakout attempt with a move above the upper trendline. Further strength above 88000 would forge a higher high and argue for a new uptrend. I would then set a re-evaluation level at the 270-day SMA. A close below this moving average would suggest a failed breakout.  

TrendInvestorPro keeps you on the right side.

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Nintendo on Friday announced that retail preorder for its Nintendo Switch 2 gaming system will begin on April 24 starting at $449.99.

Preorders for the hotly anticipated console were initially slated for April 9, but Nintendo delayed the date to assess the impact of the far-reaching, aggressive “reciprocal” tariffs that President Donald Trump announced earlier this month.

Most electronics companies, including Nintendo, manufacture their products in Asia. Nintendo’s Switch 1 consoles were made in China and Vietnam, Reuters reported in 2019. Trump has imposed a 145% tariff rate on China and a 10% rate on Vietnam. The latter is down from 46%, after he instituted a 90-day pause to allow for negotiations.

Nintendo said Friday that the Switch 2 will cost $449.99 in the U.S., which is the same price the company first announced on April 2.

“We apologize for the retail pre-order delay, and hope this reduces some of the uncertainty our consumers may be experiencing,” Nintendo said in a statement. “We thank our customers for their patience, and we share their excitement to experience Nintendo Switch 2 starting June 5, 2025.”

The Nintendo Switch 2 and “Mario Kart World bundle will cost $499.99, the digital version “Mario Kart World” will cost $79.99 and the digital version of “Donkey Kong Bananza” will cost $69.99, Nintendo said. All of those prices remain unchanged from the company’s initial announcement.

However, accessories for the Nintendo Switch 2 will “experience price adjustments,” the company said, and other future changes in costs are possible for “any Nintendo product.”

It will cost gamers $10 more to by the dock set, $1 more to buy the controller strap and $5 more to buy most other accessories, for instance.

Retailer Best Buy said Friday that it will also begin accepting preorders for the Nintendo Switch 2 console, games and accessories on April 24.

The company said that for the first time in six years, most of its stores will open at midnight for the official launch day, June 5, so that customers can “get their hands on their new Switch 2 immediately.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Netflix executives messaged Thursday that all is well with the business in the face of economic turbulence. But its full-year outlook tells a slightly more nuanced story.

Netflix posted a big beat on operating margin for the first quarter, reporting 31.7% compared with the average estimate of 28.5%, according to StreetAccount. And it guided well above analyst estimates for the second quarter — 33.3% against an average estimate of 30%.

By its own phrasing, Netflix was “ahead” of its own guidance for the first quarter and is “tracking above the mid-point of our 2025 revenue guidance range.”

Still, Netflix declined to alter any of its longer-term projections. That suggests Netflix isn’t quite as confident in its second half.

“There’s been no material change to our overall business outlook since our last earnings report,” Netflix wrote in its quarterly note to shareholders.

U.S. consumer sentiment is at its second-lowest level since 1952 as President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies roil markets.

Co-CEO Greg Peters noted during the company’s earnings conference call that Netflix has, in the past, “been generally quite resilient” to economic slowdowns. Home entertainment provides a cheaper form of leisure than most other activities. A monthly Netflix subscription with ads costs $7.99.

But the question remains how — or whether — an economic slowdown would pinch Americans’ wallets and force higher churn among streaming subscriptions.

Netflix stopped reporting quarterly subscriber numbers this quarter, so the company will likely not detail if it sees a customer slowdown later this year beyond reporting its underlying revenue and profit.

First-quarter revenue of $10.5 billion was roughly in line with analyst expectations, while second-quarter guidance of $11 billion is slightly above.

“Retention, that’s stable and strong. We haven’t seen anything significant in plan mix or plan take rate,” said Peters. “Things generally look stable.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS