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May 4, 2025

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The market does not always follow the same script or sequence, but bear markets typically end with a bottoming process marked by specific stages. These include capitulation, a short-term reversal-thrust, a follow-through thrust and long-term regime change. The first two stages mark downside excess and the initial turn around, while the latter two signal strong follow through. Today’s report will look at the first two phases, and preview the last two.

Phase 1: Capitulation

The capitulation phase of a bear market occurs when traders throw in the towel as downside momentum and selling pressure accelerate. Usually, the capitulation phase occurs after an extended decline, and this phase is the first step to a bottom. The chart below shows SPY with Bollinger Bands (200,3), %B (200,3) and S&P 500 Percent Above 200-day SMA ($SPXA200R). Signs of capitulation emerge when %B is below 0 and/or fewer than 20% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs. The blue dashed lines show capitulation in June 2022, September 2022 and early April 2025. Note that we initially covered this capitulation phase in a report on April 8th.

Phase 2: Short-term Thrust Signals (ZBT)

Phase 2 is marked by a sharp-reversal from oversold extremes and an upside thrust. The Zweig Breadth Thrust is perhaps the most famous thrust indicator these days. We covered the ZBT extensively over the last few weeks and introduced a strategy using this indicator. The chart below shows the S&P 1500 ZBT indicator in the lower window (10-day EMA of S&P 1500 AD%). A thrust signal triggered on April 24th and stocks followed through with further gains.  

Two Down and Two to Go

The capitulation phase showed excessive selling pressure and the thrust phase marked a short-term reversal. These are bullish events, but the market cup is not yet half full. SPY remains below its 200-day SMA and the late March high (see chart above). Medium-term thrust indicators have yet to trigger and long-term breadth remains bearish. The 14% surge over the last 17 days is impressive, but keep in mind that SPY surged 10% in nine days in March 2022, which was a bear market bounce.

TrendInvestorPro produced a report this week covering the four phases – and what to watch going forward. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access.

  • Phase 1: Capitulation
  • Phase 2: Short-term Thrust Signals
  • Phase 3: Medium-term Thrust Signals
  • Capitulation and Thrust Indexes
  • Phase 4: Long-term Indicators turn Bullish
  • Short-term Improvements, but Longer Term 

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Gold trended down this week, dropping to just over US$3,200 per ounce on the first day of May.

While the yellow metal remains historically high after a strong run this year, its price has pulled back from last week’s record-setting level of US$3,500, causing concern for some market participants.

However, many experts agree that this week’s retreat isn’t a reason to worry.

His technical analysis shows that the US$3,100 to US$3,140 area will be important to watch moving forward — in his view, that’s when bullish players should start re-entering the space, boosting the price.

Soloway also outlined gold’s future price potential, saying he sees a potential path to US$7,000. Check out the full interview for more of his thoughts on gold, as well as silver and the US economy.

Bullet briefing — Fed to meet next week, US-Ukraine deal signed

Market watchers eye Fed meeting

Eyes are shifting to the US Federal Reserve’s next meeting, set to run from May 6 to 7. It follows initial numbers showing that real GDP contracted by an annual rate of 0.3 percent in Q1.

That’s the first negative reading since 2022, and as the news weighed on the stock market, US President Donald Trump took to social media to suggest the data is an ‘overhang’ from Joe Biden’s term.

Trump has pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates sooner than later, but CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows the vast majority of market participants expect rates to stay flat.

Trump advisor Elon Musk also has his eye on the Fed. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday (April 30), he said the US$2.5 billion renovation of the central bank’s headquarters could become a point of inquiry for the Department of Government Efficiency, better known as DOGE.

Calling the cost an ‘eyebrow raiser,’ Musk questioned where the money is being spent. The price of the project was initially set at US$1.9 billion in 2021, but has increased since then.

‘Since at the end of the day, this is all taxpayer money, I think we certainly — we should definitely — look to see if indeed the Federal Reserve is spending $2.5 billion on their interior designer’ — Musk

US, Ukraine sign critical minerals deal

The US and Ukraine signed a much-anticipated minerals deal on Wednesday, ending months of often-tense negotiations between the two countries. If approved by parliament in Ukraine, the agreement will set up a reconstruction investment fund that will be split 50/50 between each party.

According to Ukrainian officials, the deal is more equitable than previous versions.

The fund will be financed only by new licenses for critical materials, oil and gas; aside from that, Ukraine will not have to pay back wartime aid provided by the US.

While Ukraine had pushed for security guarantees from the US, that component ultimately wasn’t put in place. However, the US may provide new assistance to Ukraine, such as air defense systems.

A total of 55 minerals are reportedly covered in the arrangement, but more can be added in the future if there is consensus between the US and Ukraine. Although the US will get preferential rights to mineral extraction, Ukraine will have the final say on what is mined and where, and will retain subsoil ownership.

The agreement comes on the back of an increasing global focus on critical minerals, many of which are key for new technology and important industries like defense.

It’s worth noting that while Ukraine is home to a wide variety of these commodities, more geological data will be needed to determine commercial viability — for example, there is no up-to-date information on the country’s reserves of rare earths, which are important to the US.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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George Orwell famously said, ‘If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.’ On World Press Freedom Day, we must remind ourselves of the people who have lost their freedoms fighting for this very right. 

My father Jimmy Lai is one such man. He is currently in Stanley maximum security prison in Hong Kong, facing potential life in prison for simply publishing what Chinese authorities do not want to hear. 

His story is one of extraordinary transformation and unwavering conviction. Arriving in Hong Kong at age 12 after fleeing Communist China, he began his journey as a child laborer in a clothing factory, enduring hardship and poverty. 

Yet, through grit and vision, he rose from factory worker to factory manager, and by 1975, used his savings to purchase a bankrupt garment factory. This bold move laid the foundation for his first major success: Giordano, a clothing chain that grew into an international brand with thousands of employees and stores across Asia.

The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre marked a turning point for him. Witnessing the brutal suppression of pro-democracy protesters, he redirected his life’s work from business to activism, determined to fight for freedom and human rights in Hong Kong. 

In 1995, he founded Apple Daily, a newspaper that quickly became a beacon for free speech and democracy, unafraid to criticize the Chinese Communist Party and expose corruption. My father poured $100 million of his own fortune into the venture, ensuring the paper’s independence and fearless reporting.

His media empire, including Next Magazine and Apple Daily, became a megaphone for Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement, rallying citizens and challenging the authorities. His outspoken criticism of Beijing and unwavering support for protestors made him a target. 

The CCP labeled him a ‘troublemaker,’ and his businesses faced retaliation, including the closure of his Beijing Giordano store after a controversial column. Yet, he never wavered, famously stating, ‘Information is choice and choice is freedom’ using both high-brow and popular content to spread the message of liberty.

His commitment to principle set him apart from other tycoons. While many business leaders in Hong Kong chose silence or compromise, he stood alone, enduring threats, arrests, and ultimately imprisonment for his beliefs. In 2014, he was arrested during the pro-democracy Umbrella Movement protests, and in 2020, as Beijing tightened its grip on Hong Kong, my father was again detained under the draconian National Security Law. 

Despite the risks, he refused to flee, choosing to remain in Hong Kong and continue the stand for his beliefs, even as Apple Daily was forced to close, even as he now faces the possibility of the rest of his life behind bars.

My father’s life is a testament to the power of conviction. He is not just a businessman or media mogul – he is a symbol of freedom and hope for many. His outsider status, as an immigrant who never quite fit in, gave him the strength to play by his own rules and challenge the status quo.

Despite his wealth and influence, he remains deeply human – a husband, father and practicing Catholic. We miss his booming voice and boisterous laughter around our dinner table. We long for the day we can again share a meal, again pray together.

Over the past few months, both President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have publicly stated their commitment to securing my father’s freedom, consistent with the president’s prioritizing the release of those wrongly detained abroad. He has secured the release of 14 prisoners since taking office in January.

My father is fortunate to have deep bipartisan support in this country and abroad. The U.S. and the U.K. have called for his immediate and unconditional release, as have the parliaments of Canada and the EU. He has received numerous awards for his courage, and I will receive a Bradley Prize on his behalf on May 29 in Washington. But he remains in prison.

My father is one of 10 journalists who are still being held in Hong Kong’s prisons, some of whom worked for him at Apple Daily. While he may be the most high-profile among them, all of these journalists were fighting for their right to speak truth to power, and to defend their way of life.

Their bravery reminds us that freedom is never guaranteed – it must be fought for, often at great personal cost. My father’s defiance in the face of overwhelming power, his willingness to sacrifice everything for his principles, and his belief in the dignity of every individual make him a genuine hero of our time. 

At 77 years old, he has spent the last four years in a maximum-security prison for these beliefs. His legacy endures as a beacon of hope, showing that just one person’s courage can change the course of history. 

The end to my father’s story is not yet written. This World Press Freedom Day, I appeal to all who cherish free speech to join our fight to secure my father’s release so he can leave Hong Kong and spend his old age with his family.

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A small English town north of bustling Manchester just saw two controversial pro-Gaza candidates flip seats held by the mainstream Labour Party. Both candidates ran as independents in the May 1 local elections.

Maheen Kamran, 18, won the Burnley Central East seat on the Lancashire County Council, while Azhar Ali won the position of county councillor for the Nelson East ward. The Telegraph noted that their victories could be part of a growing trend, following a slew of pro-Gaza candidates—including former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn—winning seats in last year’s general election.

Ali is a former Labour Party member who was suspended from the party and lost its backing over allegations of antisemitism during an election last year. Labour initially supported Ali after he claimed that Israel ‘allowed’ Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre to occur as a pretext to invade Gaza, according to the BBC. He later apologized for making what he called a ‘deeply offensive, ignorant and false’ claim. Labour withdrew its support for Ali and later suspended him from the party.

The Board of Deputies of British Jews did not accept Ali’s apology, calling his comments ‘disgraceful and unforgivable.’

‘It is clear to us that Mr. Ali is not [apologizing] out of a genuine sense of remorse. Despite what he says in his apology, we do not see how we could possibly engage with him at this time, and we believe other leading Jewish communal groups will feel similarly,’ the organization wrote in a 2024 statement.

Meanwhile, Kamran has taken radical stances of her own. She voted in favor of ending the ‘free mixing’ of Muslim men and women in public spaces. 

‘Muslim women aren’t really comfortable with being involved with Muslim men. I’m sure we can have segregated areas, segregated gyms, where Muslim women don’t have to sacrifice their health,’ Kamran told PoliticsHome.

In the same interview, Kamran said she entered politics because she believes there is a ‘genocide’ taking place in Gaza. While critics of Israel’s military actions use the term ‘genocide,’ supporters of the Jewish state often argue that Israel has the capability to destroy Gaza’s population but has chosen not to, thereby disputing the genocide claim.

Ali and Kamran’s victories come as mainstream parties lose influence in local elections. The right-wing populist Reform UK Party saw major gains in the latest election, according to the Telegraph. Meanwhile, despite its control of 10 Downing Street, Labour suffered losses in the recent local elections. 

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Vice President JD Vance, Second Lady Usha Vance and their young children are adjusting well to life as the Second Family, with the vice president telling Fox News Digital that they are trying to ‘deliver as much normalcy to the kids in a very abnormal situation.’ 

Vance sat down for an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital this week. 

‘Everyone is adjusting well—they are doing very well,’ Vance said. ‘It’s different, right?’ 

‘My seven-year-old son Ewan, he’s adjusting, but he’s also aware of all of it,’ Vance said. 

‘And then we have our five-year-old son, Vivek, who I think is a little bit less aware of it,’ Vance continued. ‘To him, it’s just fun. He has a bunch of Secret Service agents to play with, and he gets to go wherever he wants to, and he really likes that.’ 

‘And Mirabel, who’s three, has no idea what’s going on,’ Vance said of his youngest. 

Vance shared a photo of Mirabel, which he and his wife display in their home in the Naval Observatory, ‘in her pajamas reviewing this Indian troop formation.’ 

‘It’s so funny—it’s maybe my favorite photo of the entire 100 days that we’ve had so far—it’s very cute,’ Vance said. ‘So, you sort of see different levels of kids’ understanding of it.’ 

Vance said the children ‘have a good school situation.’ 

‘We have good friends here, and they spend a lot of time at the White House,’ Vance said. 

‘Of course, our primary residence—we still have our home in Cincinnati—but our primary residence is the Naval Observatory,’ Vance said. ‘It’s very isolated, so it’s nice, because, for the kids, it’s not like growing up in a fishbowl.’ 

Vance said the children ‘have a lot of room to run around.’ 

‘There aren’t cameras everywhere, and it feels very, very private—very normal for the kids—which is all we could ask for,’ Vance said. 

As for his wife, Vance said ‘each second lady approaches the role differently—there’s not like, a manual that says—this is how you will be second lady.’ 

‘I think what Usha has done is she has focused on some issues she cares about and she is very involved in the Kennedy Center—she really likes the arts and that is a project that she’s taken on,’ Vance explained, adding that she plans to ‘take on additional projects.’ 

‘But she also is a mom,’ Vance said. ‘And the kids are really young, and she saw this as an opportunity to try to deliver as much normalcy to the kids in a very abnormal situation.’ 

He added: ‘But she’s doing well, and she really likes it—I think the role suits her and she’s having fun. She’s amazing.’ 

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