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June 15, 2025

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An attempt to break out of a month-long consolidation fizzled out as the Nifty declined and returned inside the trading zone it had created for itself. Over the past five sessions, the markets consolidated just above the upper edge of the trading zone; however, this failed to result in a breakout as the markets suffered a corrective retracement. The trading range stayed wider on anticipated lines; the Index oscillated in a 749-point range over the past week. The volatility rose; the India Vix climbed 3.08% to 15.08 on a weekly basis. The headline Index closed with a net weekly loss of 284.45 points (-1.14%).

We have a fresh set of geopolitical tensions to deal with Israel attacking Iran. The global equity markets are likely to remain affected, and India will be no exception to this. Having said this, the Indian markets are relatively stronger than their peers and are likely to stay that way. Despite the negative reaction to the global uncertainties, Nifty has shown great resilience and has remained in the 24500-25100 trading zone, in which it has been trading for over a month now. There are high possibilities that over the coming week, the Nifty may stay volatile and oscillate in a wide range, but it is unlikely to create any directional bias. A sustainable trend would emerge only after Nifty takes out 25100 on the upside or violates the 24500 level.

The levels of 25100 and 25300 are likely to act as resistance points in the coming week. The supports are likely to come in at 24500 and 24380.

The weekly RSI stands at 57.67; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty has failed to break above the rising trendline resistance. This trendline begins from 21150 and joins the subsequent higher bottoms. Besides this, it reinforces the 25100 level as a strong resistance point. For any trending upmove to emerge, it would be crucial for the Index to move past this level convincingly.

Overall, it is unlikely that the Nifty will violate the 24500 levels. The options data shows very negligible call writing below 24500 strikes, increasing the possibility of this level staying defended over the coming days. Unless there is a situation with more gravity to be dealt with, the markets may stay largely in a defined trading range. The sector rotation stays visible in favor of traditionally defensive pockets and low-beta stocks. We continue to recommend a cautious stance as long as the Index does not move past the 25100 level and stays above that point. Until then, a highly stock-specific approach is recommended while guarding profits at higher levels.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Midcap 100 has rolled inside the leading quadrant and is set to outperform the broader markets relatively. The Nifty PSU Bank and PSE Indices are also inside the leading quadrant; however, they are giving up on their relative momentum.

The Nifty Infrastructure Index has rolled into the weakening quadrant. The Banknifty, Services Sector Index, Consumption, Financial Services, and Commodities Sector Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant. While stock-specific performance may be seen, the collective relative outperformance may diminish.

The Nifty FMCG Index languishes in the lagging quadrant. The Metal and Pharma Indices are also in the lagging quadrant, but they are improving their relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Index.

The Nifty Realty, Media, Auto, and Energy Sector Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they may continue improving their relative performance against the broader markets.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Israel’s ongoing military campaign on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure could mark not just a military escalation but a strategic shift, according to retired Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin. 

The former head of Israeli military intelligence and one of the architects behind the legendary 1981 strike on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor said Israel should expand its sights not just military targets, but political ones. 

‘Israel took the decision that, on one hand, it’s time to end the leadership of the Axis of Evil — the head of the snake,’ Yadlin told Fox News Digital. ‘At the same time, deal with the main problems there. Which is the nuclear.’

Yadlin didn’t say how long he thought the conflict would drag on. While he didn’t openly call for regime change, Yadlin suggested the IDF take out regime targets ‘beyond the military level.’

‘It’s not a one-day operation. It seems more like a week, two weeks. But when you start a war, even if you start it very successfully, you never know when it is finished.’

‘I hope that the achievements of the IDF, which are degrading the Iranian air defense, degrading the Iranian missile, ballistic missile capabilities, drones capabilities, and maybe even some regime targets beyond the military level that Israel started with, will convince the Iranians that it is time to stop. And then they will come to negotiation with the Trump administration much weaker.’

While Secretary of State Marco Rubio initially insisted it was not involved in the initial strikes on Tehran, President Donald Trump seemed to suggest he hoped Israel’s strikes would pressure a weaker Iran to acquiesce at the negotiating table.

The two sides are at loggerheads over the U.S.’s insistence that Iran cannot have any capacity to enrich uranium and Iran’s insistence that it must have uranium for a civil nuclear program. 

‘The military operation is aimed, in my view, to a political end, and the political end is an agreement with Iran that will block a possibility to go to the border,’ Yadlin said.

‘We need a stronger agreement’ than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, he said. 

Yadlin, who in 1981 flew one of the F-16s that destroyed Iraq’s nuclear facility in a single-night operation, made clear that Israel’s latest campaign is far more complex.

‘This is not 1981,’ he said. ‘Iran has learned. Their facilities are dispersed, buried in mountains, and protected by advanced air defenses. It’s not a one-night operation.’

He added, ‘There are sites that I’m not sure can be destroyed.’

He said the recent attack was the result of years of intelligence gathering – and brave Mossad agents on the ground in Iran. Israel lured top Iranian commanders into a bunker, where they coordinated a response to Israel’s attacks, then blew up the bunker. 

‘All of the intelligence that Israel collected, from the time I was chief of intelligence 2005 to 2010, enabled this operation against the Iranian nuclear program to be very efficient, very much like the good intelligence enabled Israel to destroy Hezbollah. Unfortunately, the same intelligence agencies missed the seventh of October, 2023.’ 

Indeed, Israel’s past preventive strikes — 1981’s Operation Opera and the 2007 airstrike on Syria’s suspected reactor — were rapid, surgical and designed to neutralize a singular target. In contrast, Yadlin suggested the current campaign could last weeks and involve broader goals.

‘It’s not a one-day operation. It seems more like a week, two weeks. But when you start a war, even if you start it very successfully, you never know when it is finished.’

The operation is being framed by Israeli defense officials as a continuation of the Begin Doctrine, established after the 1981 Osirak strike, which declared that Israel would never allow a hostile regime in the region to obtain weapons of mass destruction.

Yadlin himself is a symbol of that doctrine. As one of the eight pilots who flew into Iraq over four decades ago, he helped define Israel’s policy of preemptive action — a legacy that is now being tested again under radically different circumstances.

‘This campaign,’ Yadlin emphasized, ‘is unlike anything the country has done before.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) hit the Isfahan nuclear site in Iran on Friday night, a location where uranium moves beyond enrichment to the ‘reconversion’ process of building a nuclear bomb. 

‘The strike dismantled a facility for producing metallic uranium, infrastructure for reconverting enriched uranium, laboratories, and additional infrastructure,’ the IDF said on Friday. 

On Friday evening, video footage posted by Iranian media showed Iranian air defenses attempting to intercept a fresh wave of Israeli attacks on the site, adding it to a list of nuclear sites targeted that includes the key Natanz facility.

 

The IAEA has confirmed that a nuclear facility in Isfahan was struck by Israel. In a statement on X the IAEA posted that four critical buildings ‘were damaged in yesterday’s attack, including the Uranium Conversion Facility and the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant. As in Natanz, no increase in off-site radiation expected.’

‘Isfahan’s uranium conversion facility is at the heart of Iran’s quest for domestic fuel cycle mastery,’ Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy’s Iran program, told Fox News Digital. 

At Isfahan, uranium is converted into a state suited for gaseous enrichment. 

‘Crippling this capacity at Isfahan would disconnect the dots between Iran’s diverse nuclear industry and potentially handicap future efforts to prepare uranium for enrichment.’ 

Direct bombing of a facility that stores nuclear fuel represents a major blow to Iran’s nuclear program – but also risks radioactive spills. Israel avoided hitting Iran’s supply of near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel at Isfahan, the New York Times reported. 

‘All these developments are deeply concerning,’ the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi said in a statement on the attacks. ‘I have repeatedly stated that nuclear facilities must never be attacked, regardless of the context or circumstances, as it could harm both people and the environment.’ 

Israel has now targeted over 200 sites in Iran in its move to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability. 

Iranian media reported on Saturday that Israel had struck near the northwestern Tabriz refinery, reporting three missile strikes in locations near western Iran. 

The Israeli military said that initial strikes had taken out nine nuclear scientists, in addition to top generals in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and dozens of others. 

Iran’s counter-strikes have killed three Israelis. 

Experts have long warned that Iran is weeks away from enriching uranium to a weapons-grade 90%, and Israeli intelligence sources suggest Iran had moved beyond enrichment into the early production phase of a nuclear weapon.

The IAEA has warned of Iran’s ‘rapid accumulation of highly enriched uranium’ and said the regime has been opaque about providing details on its use. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Israel’s precision strike on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure may open a rare strategic window for the Trump administration. With experts telling Fox News Digital the U.S. has an opportunity to pressure Tehran toward a nuclear agreement — one that could not have been achieved through diplomacy alone. 

The Israeli military told Fox News Digital that the operation in Iran was carried out by Israeli forces but in coordination with the United States. While U.S. troops did not participate in the attack, defense cooperation continued throughout the strike — and during Iran’s retaliation on Friday, when U.S. forces helped intercept Iranian missile attacks on Tel Aviv.

‘This was an Israeli operation,’ an IDF official said, ‘but we were closely coordinated with the Americans. There was real-time intelligence and continuous contact.’

Avner Golov, vice president of Mind Israel, told Fox News Digital ‘We’re not trying to pull the U.S. in — Israel is the right model for what a responsible ally looks like: doing the hard work, asking for minimal support, and delivering strategic value.’ 

He added, ‘No one wants a war. Israel achieved this result in just a few days. It was effective and disciplined. We don’t want to stay in a prolonged war — and certainly don’t want to drag the U.S. into one. Israel is the model — a way for the U.S. to stay globally influential through a partner that delivers results with minimal investment.’

Robert Greenway, director of the Allison Center for National Security at The Heritage Foundation, said, ‘The President’s messaging so far has been careful to distinguish that these attacks are unilateral Israeli actions — not U.S. attacks. That’s largely to prevent retaliation against American infrastructure. But if U.S. assets were attacked, we would become a participant — and Iran can’t handle Israel, let alone the United States.’

‘The President made it clear that he preferred a diplomatic solution,’ Greenway added, ‘I believe that was sincere, even though he knows the Iranians full well. He anticipated that the prospects might have been remote — but it was worth trying.’

Israeli analyst and journalist for Yediot Ahronot, Nadav Eyal, told Fox News Digital the operation reflects a deliberate ‘bad cop, good cop’ strategy — with Israel applying military pressure, and the U.S. positioned to extract diplomatic gains.

‘The president is basically saying this on the record: you’ve got hit by the Israelis. Now we’ve signed a good agreement, and we’re ready to sign an agreement. . . .’

Eyal added that some of the media coverage ahead of the attack may have been deliberately misleading, part of a broader psychological operation to confuse Iran’s leadership about the timing and scope of the strike.

‘We have information pointing to the possibility that much of the publications and some stories that were published pointing to after Sunday, after negotiations with Oman, and the fact that the Americans would play with this role that contributes another major cooperation, between Israel and the U.S., as to the strike.’

Avner Golov, vice president of Mind Israel, told Fox News Digital that the strike was the culmination of a broader Israeli campaign to neutralize three fronts: Hamas in Gaza, Iran’s proxy network across the region, and now the nuclear program inside Iran.

‘Since October 7, we’ve been fighting two wars — one on the Palestinian front in Gaza, and another against Iran, which has invested in a vast network of proxies, regional partnerships, and a missile and UAV program. Over the past year and a half, we’ve struck both of those arenas and gained superiority. Now, we’ve initiated an operation against the third strategic asset.’

Golov said this is the moment for the U.S. to step in and deliver a message that escalation will trigger American consequences — not just Israeli ones.

‘Ultimately, what we want is for the U.S. to say to Iran: ‘Israel struck your nuclear and military targets, avoided civilian infrastructure and didn’t touch the regime. If you now escalate … take into account that we’re in this now, and it’s a different game altogether.’’

He emphasized that the military victory must now be sealed with a political event — ideally, one that drives Iran back to the negotiating table. ‘The nuclear issue can’t be solved by a single military event, but this creates a solid foundation for a political one. Coordination with the U.S. is absolutely crucial.’

Greenway told Fox News Digital, ‘Having taken the strike, as the President said, perhaps this does open the door to continued negotiation. There are obviously different circumstances now. Iran has less capacity than it did yesterday — and will have even less tomorrow.

‘Each day that passes, every strike that lands, Iran has less to offer in resistance. At some point, I think there’s a good possibility they’ll choose to negotiate.’

The strike also revealed U.S. involvement on the defensive front. As Iran launched missiles toward Israeli cities, U.S. forces helped intercept them — a move officials say demonstrated American commitment without triggering escalation.

‘As a practical matter, this is our best collective opportunity to do as much damage to Iran’s nuclear program and to their offensive retaliatory capabilities as possible’, Greenway said. ‘From a strictly military standpoint, this is a window of opportunity.’

Trump withdrew from the original Iran nuclear deal during his first term, citing its failure to prevent Tehran’s long-term nuclear weapons ambitions. While he has insisted Iran will never be allowed to obtain a bomb, recent reports suggest he may support a revised deal that allows uranium enrichment for civilian purposes.

Golov said the numbers now favor the U.S. if it acts swiftly. ‘We’ve optimized our numbers and are hitting theirs. Eventually, the Iranians will have to agree to the American proposal — and that proposal should be on the table now.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Just hours following Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a direct appeal to the Iranian people and said: ‘This is your opportunity to stand up [to the regime].’

The regime’s standing not only with the international community, amid its vast support of state-sponsored terrorism, which has impacted neighboring nations from Syria and Yemen to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, coupled with years of internal unrest, could mean regime change is on the horizon.

‘We are in the midst of one of the greatest military operations in history,’ Netanyahu said Friday. ‘The Islamic regime, which has oppressed you for almost 50 years, threatens to destroy our country.’

The Israeli leader said Jerusalem’s goal in hitting Iran’s top military targets is to thwart the nuclear and missile threats that Iran poses towards the Jewish nation, which he argued weakens the regime and poses a unique opportunity for dissidents within. 

Minority groups make up some 50% of the Iranian population, and some Iranian specialists have argued that if the minority groups, which are frequent targets of oppression in Iran, were to unite against the regime, they could play a critical role in toppling the regime.

Iran has faced increasing opposition since the death of Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish woman, who in September 2022 was arrested by Iran’s morality police and later died in a hospital due to her injuries.

Amini’s death sparked mass protests across the country, which Iran brutally clapped back at and continues to execute those arrested during the demonstrations. 

Fox News Digital was told by Yigal Carmon, President of the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), that members of the Ahwazis, a minority group in south-western Iran, which make up 6-8% of the population, have already been arrested by the regime amid its fears another internal rebellion could brew alongside war with Israel.

It is unclear if any demonstrations have yet begun or if their arrests were pre-emptively carried out. 

‘A regime change will be supported by many,’ Carmon said. ‘The fact is that only the minorities can bring a regime change because they are militarily organized.’

‘A coalition of non-Persian ethnic groups could topple the regime in a few months,’ he said. ‘Unlike the Persian anti-regime population, the non-Persian anti-regime population is militarily organized.’

Other minority groups, like the Kurds, who make up 10%-15% of Iran’s population and who live primarily in the northwestern border areas near Iraq and Turkey, as well as the Baloch people, who encompass another 5% of the population and live along Iran’s southeast border with Pakistan, also have a long history of opposing the regime, though they have also suffered brutal consequences. 

‘It has never been weaker. This is your opportunity to stand up and let your voices be heard. Woman, Life, Freedom Zan, Zendegi, Azadi,’ Netanyahu said.  ‘As I said yesterday and many times before, Israel’s fight is not against the Iranian people. 

‘Our fight is against the murderous Islamic regime that oppresses and impoverishes you,’ he added. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The United States Embassy in Jerusalem has issued a security alert stating that American government workers and their families in Israel remain indoors, as Iran has hit the Jewish state with drone and missile strikes.

The alert, first made on Saturday and then posted again Sunday morning, comes as Iranian strikes have so far killed at least 10 people in Israel and injured upwards of 180. 

‘As a result of the current security situation and ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, the U.S. Embassy has directed that all U.S. government employees and their family members continue to shelter in place until further notice,’ The embassy’s alert, posted on its website and X, said.

‘Given the proximity of missile and debris impacts, the U.S. Embassy has offered employees living near the Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv the option to voluntarily relocate to new accommodations further away,’ the alert continued.

Meanwhile, Israeli airspace remained closed, with arrivals and departures, according to a statement from an Israel Airports Authority spokesperson.

Iran’s bombardment of Israel came in response to Israel’s strikes against Iranian nuclear and military targets, which Israeli officials said were preemptive measures as Iran drew closer to developing nuclear weapons.

‘I’ll tell you what would have come if we hadn’t acted. We had information that this unscrupulous regime was planning to give the nuclear weapons that they would develop to their terrorist proxies,’ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted on X on Saturday. ‘That’s nuclear terrorism on steroids. That would threaten the entire world.’

Israel has also made clear that strikes against Tehran are far from over, issuing a warning to the people of Iran.

‘Urgent warning to all Iranian citizens: All individuals currently or soon to be present in or around military weapons production factories and their supporting institutions must immediately evacuate these areas and not return until further notice,’ the Israel Defense Forces said in an alert posted in Farsi. ‘Your presence near these facilities puts your life at risk.’

The IDF contrasted their approach with that of Iran, which has launched attacks at civilian areas.

‘This is the message we spread to Iranian citizens. While Iran chooses to strike without warning, we choose to warn a innocent [sic] people even if it means giving up the element of surprise,’ the IDF posted to X Sunday morning. ‘We warn them, in Persian, across many channels. Because human life comes first to us. That’s the difference between us and our enemy.’

Fox News’ Landon Mion contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that concerns over national security risks posed by Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion bid for U.S. Steel can be resolved if the companies fulfill certain conditions that his administration has laid out, paving the way for the deal’s approval.

Shares of U.S. Steel rose 3.5% on the news in after-the-bell trading as investors bet the deal was close to done. Trump, in an executive order, said conditions for resolving the national security concerns would be laid out in an agreement, without providing details. “I additionally find that the threatened impairment to the national security of the United States arising as a result of the Proposed Transaction can be adequately mitigated if the conditions set forth in section 3 of this order are met,” Trump said in the order, which was released by the White House.

The companies thanked Trump in a news release, saying the agreement includes $11 billion in new investments to be made by 2028 and governance commitments including a golden share to be issued to the U.S. government. They did not detail how much control the golden share would give the U.S. Shares of U.S. Steel had dipped earlier on Friday after a Nippon Steel executive told the Japanese Nikkei newspaper that its planned takeover of U.S. Steel required “a degree of management freedom” to go ahead after Trump earlier had said the U.S. would be in control with a golden share.

The bid, first announced by Nippon Steel in December 2023, has faced opposition from the start. Both Democratic former President Joe Biden and Trump, a Republican, asserted last year that U.S. Steel should remain U.S.-owned, as they sought to woo voters ahead of the presidential election in Pennsylvania, where the company is headquartered.

Biden in January, shortly before leaving office, blocked the deal on national security grounds, prompting lawsuits by the companies, which argued the national security review they received was biased. The Biden White House disputed the charge.

The steel companies saw a new opportunity in the Trump administration, which began on January 20 and opened a fresh 45-day national security review into the proposed merger in April.

But Trump’s public comments, ranging from welcoming a simple “investment” in U.S. Steel by the Japanese firm to floating a minority stake for Nippon Steel, spurred confusion.

At a rally in Pennsylvania on May 30, Trump lauded an agreement between the companies and said Nippon Steel would make a “great partner” for U.S. Steel. But he later told reporters the deal still lacked his final approval, leaving unresolved whether he would allow Nippon Steel to take ownership.

Nippon Steel and the Trump administration asked a U.S. appeals court on June 5 for an eight-day extension of a pause in litigation to give them more time to reach a deal for the Japanese firm. The pause expires Friday, but could be extended.

June 18 is the expiration date of the current acquisition contract between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel, but the firms could agree to postpone that date

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS